Exploring the Futures of the Ummah A Review of Simulation Models and Approaches to the Study of Alternative Futures

Abstract

This article is both a critique of ways of approaching the future and a presentation of scenarios of the Islamic world a generation ahead. The critique covers various global models, including The Club of Rome's classic Limits to Growth (LTG), 1 Mankind at the Turning Point (MTP), and World 2000, and other approaches to the understanding of the future. Drawing from poststructural theory, we ask: What is missing, who does the analysis privilege, and what epistemological frames or ways of knowing are accentuated, are made primary, by the models used? What can the Islamic world learn from these models? We attempt to go a step further than merely asking the Marxist class question of who benefits financially. For us, the issue is deeper. We are concerned with what knowledge frames and (more appropriately, from an Islamic per­spective) what civilizational frames are privileged, are considered more important. An appendix presents recommendations focused on making the Islamic urrunah more future oriented.
However, global models are only one way of approaching or under­standing the future. There are other ways of approaching the study of the future from which can be derived specific assertions about issues, trends, and scenarios as to the likely and possible shape of the future. We also inquire into the utility of these models for better understanding the future of the Islamic ummah. We conclude with visions of the future of the ummah ...