The Tragedy of Lebanon Demise of a Fragmented Country

Abstract

I.
Since the end of World War 11, approximately eighty new states have
been established. Only two, Pakistan and Cyprus, have undergone the
agony of dismemberment when Bangladesh broke off in 1973 and the
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was declared in 1983. The world
may now be witnessing the possible breakup of yet a third state:
Lebanon, whose disintegration has been accelerated since the June 1982
Israeli invasion.
Shortly after the invasion began, Henry Kissinger assessed its
consequence for Lebanon’s future, concluding, “It is neither desirable
nor possible to return to the status quo ante in Lebanon.” One possible
outcome was that some Syrian and Israeli forces would remain in the
northern and southern ends, respectively, and the central government’s
authority would ostensibly cover the rest of the country. Implicit in the
Kissinger diagnosis is the possibility of eventual partition.
Though the gloomy assessment by the “wizard” of US. foreign policy
should by no means be construed as a portent of an official shift away
from the publicly stated US. support of “Lebanon’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity,” a shadow was cast on the country’s prospects.
Subsequent developments have seemed to indicate that Lebanon’s
demise looms larger than at any time since the beginning of the civil war
in 1975-76.
For over a year and a half national fragmentation has proceeded
inexorably. What many people once could imagine only with difficulty,
they now acknowledge: in reality, Lebanon is facing possible death. The
South (35 percent of the land area) is occupied by Israel; the North and
the Biqa’ (45 percent) are controlled by Syria; Kasrawan (15 percent) is
controlled by the Christian Maronite forces (the Lebanese Front forces),
which are not subject to the government’s authority. The rest of the
country-beleaguered Beirut and environs-was until the February
1984 breakdown under the government’s shaky control supported by
symbolic US., French, Italian, and British units. The Multi-National
Force (MNF) was subject to increasing attacks by Muslim leftist factions,
as witnessed in the October 23 bombing of the quarters of U.S.
Marines and French troops. Thus, instead of keeping peace, the MNF
became ,a partisan force trying to protect itself. The US. and French
forces in particular seemed to have outlived their usefulness as
“peacekeepers.” Recurrent fighting in southern Beirut and in the
adjacent Chouf mountains, that pitted Christian Maronites and army
units against Shi‘ite and Druse Muslims constantly threatened the
existence of President Amin Gemayel’s government and consequently a
renewal of the civil war. This situation culminated in February 1984 in
the resignation of the Shafiq al-Wazzan’s cabinet, the loss of
government’s control of West Beirut to Muslim-leftist militias, and the
imminent collapse of Amin Gemayel’s presidency ...